Michael Hirson is the head of China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group. Paul Triolo is the head of global technology policy at Eurasia Group. The opinions expressed in this commentary are their own.
The need to take a tough stance toward China is a rare point of agreement between Democrats and Republicans these days. This bipartisan consensus started to emerge even before President Donald Trump took office, fueled by alarm at China’s economic and technology catchup with the United States and frustration at Beijing’s trade and human rights policies. But President-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration and Congress need smart policies toward China, not just tough ones.
Here are some things the new administration and Congress should keep in mind:
Play the long game
The Trump administration correctly recognized that aspects of previous US policy toward China have been ineffective — in particular, the frequent reluctance to confront Beijing on problematic trade and foreign policies. But the administration — with cheerleaders from both parties in Congress — has erred by flipping to the other extreme. US policy today is to find any tool to act unilaterally against China — from tariffs to controls on US technology exports — without first plotting a sustainable strategy.Consider restrictions preventing the US semiconductor industry from selling to Huawei, China’s leader in 5G wireless technology, and other tech firms. The move has seen short-term success in blunting China’s ability to grab a global lead in running 5G networks, but also carries dangers for US technology supremacy. Chinese as well as other foreign firms now have an incentive to “design out” US products and intellectual property from their technology sectors. The result, if the United States is not careful, is that US semiconductor firms will lose global market share — and the profits to invest in cutting-edge technologies — while Chinese and other foreign firms supply these products instead. Read MoreExport controls, like financial sanctions and many other diplomatic and economic tools, work best when the United States works in partnership with allies, such as the European Union and Japan. The Biden administration and Congress will need to combine the resoluteness of Trump’s approach with a strategy that leverages US alliances.
Invest in domestic strengths
The United States also needs to make the necessary investments to keep its technological edge. The top priority here should be reversing the long decline in federal funding (measured as a share of GDP) for basic science and research and development. Numerous studies have shown that federal funding not only yields breakthroughs in science and medicine but also brings a high economic rate of return. As proposed by two MIT economists, the United States could fund innovation hubs in red states and other areas — away from traditional centers, such as Silicon Valley — kickstarting local economies and reducing income inequality. Improving connectivity via rural broadband expansion and embarking on a long-term upgrade of critical infrastructure could also bolster US innovation capacity while strengthening the economy.
Be determined but not hyperbolic
The next administration must avoid seeing China as the bogeyman behind every corner. Politicians portray virtually every issue touching China now as a national security threat. Some, such as Chinese espionage, certainly are. But taken too far, such arguments undermine US moral authority or are counterproductive in other ways.Legitimate risks of illicit acquisition of intellectual property have blossomed into an unfair demonization of Chinese students and researchers in STEM fields in the United States, painting them as tools of a Beijing strategy to steal advanced US technologies. Law enforcement officials should continue to investigate clear cases of illicit acquisition of intellectual property, but public discourse needs to be balanced by recognizing the reality that US academic institutions and companies benefit from access to a pipeline of well-trained engineers and scientists from China. The vast majority are not working for Chinese intelligence.Likewise, some recent efforts to counter Chinese influence in the United States will do little but undermine US influence in China. The Trump administration quietly suspended Fulbright scholarships — which pay for Americans to teach and study — in both China and Hong Kong. Such programs deepen US understanding of China at a time when such knowledge is more important than ever.Even worse, hostile language over China’s initial handling of the coronavirus — and cruel epithets like the “China virus” — have almost surely played a role in a spike in hate crimes against Asian Americans. Words matter.
Govern well at home
While the United States is militarily and economically dominant, our political dysfunction makes the rest of the world wonder if we will remain so. The United States (like Europe) badly fumbled its response to the coronavirus epidemic while China, after early missteps, has been remarkably effective. A US presidential election in which the outcome is still contested and labeled as “rigged” makes our democratic institutions look weak and represents a victory for Beijing.Competing against China won’t heal our political divides, but both parties should strive to show that the United States can govern itself competently.
Source: edition.cnn.com